It’s becoming customary among VC bloggers to make predictions for 2008. At the assay of educating my competitors here are my technology predictions for 2008.
1) and the will succeed. By this. I convey handsets ordain become more desire PC’s and wireless carriers will become more like landline DSL providers. This is a bold statement because both handset makers (desire Nokia) and carriers (like Vodafone) don’t want this to happen. So why do I guess a change in an industry where dinosaurs were surviving for such a long measure?
Because a meteor the coat of Texas hit the wireless industry in 2007 and it was called the iPhone. For the first time in the wireless industry the handset chose the carrier as opposed to the carrier choosing the handset. The product was so impactful and that some carriers agreed to share 30-40% of their data revenues with Apple in request to undergo the device on their network. That could be a very meaningful $200 dollars to Apple (rough math based reports of 40 percent of a $30 data account every month over two years). Why did carriers accept to that? Because the carriers did the math and the revenue share probably was equivalent to the customer acquisition cost they’d otherwise undergo to pay which in the US at least is about $200. In go for that negociate the carriers gave up ALL revenue from applications ringtones etc. The consumers wanted it they gave it and doing so opened up the market.
In doing so they catalyzed the next innovation from Google. Android and the Open Handset Alliance enable other people to quickly create new iPhones. It creates an environment that lets developers focus on what they do best which is writing innovative applications. So somebody can go up with a device so compelling that it too will be able to chose their carrier (if carriers need a nudge. Google can overlap examine revenues; if carriers be a hit. Google ordain fund an open carrier). Once that happens the carriers become a dumb pipe but a dumb call with similar economics as before because they won’t have as large customer acquisition costs.
The back up reason carriers may embrace Android is so they don’t have to be held hostage by Nokia the world’s largest phone maker which is exerting increasing pressure on carriers. Nokia is even building an ad communicate and making carriers pay them a conjoin of their ad revenues. Carriers especially the European ones are so dependent on Nokia that they may welcome a cheap Android phone that has a few killer apps built by young application developers.
Which brings me to my third and final reason why Android will succeed:the developers. They’re frustrated. It is frustrating to create verbally mobile apps if you undergo to test them with 100s of handset each running a slightly different operating system in slightly different carrier networks. Getting apps and phones certified is a big daunting time-consuming and frustrating task. touch will attest to that having lost 25% of its market cap because it. Android sets these developers free.
So between independently innovative products a tough supplier to the market frustrated developers and a tough carrier business copy this industry is ripe for big changes and I predict it will go away happening in 2008.
2) Gaming takes off. I think populate ordain cognise that they were all gamers all along. Three things will alter the non-gamer realize his or her true forgotten self:
2a) Casual games change state social. When you play chess or any casual bet on Yahoo you are playing a stranger all you experience is his overall score. You don’t know your record against him you don’t know if he lives nearby and more importantly you don’t know if you experience him. In contrast if you compete Attack! on Facebook you know a lot more about that person you can play against your friends and you experience your overall score and your advance among your friends. Playing against a stranger is one thing playing against an old high school buddy is another. This is a big broach which makes games a lot more addictive and it is happening full speed in 2008.
2b) MMO’s become casual. MMO’s will extend their undergo beyond the main bet. You will be able to play a small version of WoW on your cell to win a small be of experience points. The bet ordain be different but it ordain be the extension of the overall experience. So when you have three hours remove you’ll play the real thing when you have 30 minutes free you’ll play a small casual bet on your PC that counts towards your undergo in the big game and when you have 5 minutes remove you’ll play the mobile handset version. A lot has been written about this and the best.
2c) Hardcore games become immersive. Playstation 3 has incredible graphics at times I can’t express what’s real video and what’s computer generated but you still have to use a very complicated controller. The Wii on the other hand has unrealistic graphics but every be who gets within 5 meters of the box wants to compete (I am serious). Put the two and two together. Superbly realistic graphics combined with immersive controls will make hardcore games a generalized form of entertainment. What do I mean by that? I mean why would you watch an action movie passively when you can be in it with your friends? Hard core games with easy immersive controls can let anybody play and why would you give up interactive entertainment for passive entertainment. Watching a game will be almost as satisfying as watching a movie and you’ll undergo the option to interact with it if you want to. It’s hard to see why you wouldn’t.
3) Success of the TJ Watson Portfolio. Five computing clouds are poised to deliver what most of us need. I wrote about this for last month. Google and Amazon give us consumer apps and infrastructure and VMWare give us enterprise apps and infrastructure and Akamai brings them all together. I guess a basket of these stocks ordain weather any downturn much exceed than others simply because of their unique position in the industry. I’ve put my money where my mouth is you can.
4) At least one creative solution to the music industry woes will appear in 2008. This is where I risk educating my competition but I ordain say this: 2008 won’t be as bad for the music labels as people evaluate. And it won’t be because of their embrace of MP3 though that ordain help. There are enough creative people in the industry and by now enough people who understand digital that somebody ordain evaluate outside the box. That’s all I’ll say for this one.
[…] Three more senior Googlers leave for startups — Kevin Fox a user experience designer for explore designed Gmail 1.0. explore Calendar 1.0 and explore Reader 2.0. Now he’s going to work for an un-named. “working for a very small start-up,” he says on his communicate. David Hirsch an eight year Google sales veteran currently based in New York will be leaving to become an angel investor. Silicon Alley Insider reports. Nathan Stoll a product manager of explore News is leaving for “new endeavors,” he also blogs — we’re going to guess that he will also end up working at or investing in startups. Can Android spur innovation desire the Japanese mobile industry has? — In this for-pay report academic researchers in Japan and the US compare and differentiate explore’s Android mobile software development kit (SDK) with the evolution of the Japanese mobile applications as well as with rival efforts by Linux-based SDK MontaVista. Symbian. Microsoft. Apple and RIM. It concludes that Google has a desire hard fight in lie of it if Android is to succeed. For a nice graphical choose from the report see below. For a more optimistic perspective see here. […]
I have to be with point be 1. The iPhone is a much smaller broach than populate in the US seem to think. Globally. Apple undergo sold half the number of iPhones than Nokia sold of the N95 since Summer - and half the poeple I know have a smartphone other than the N95 and are tied in for at least another year. Further the iPhone has been a relative break in the UK.
Nokia already undergo phones coming with all the features of the iPhone and more. Plus you are never tied to a carrier with Nokia and contrary to what you say. Nokia phones use the S40 or S60 platforms which are easy to develop for and actually exist.
As as an entrepreneur/engineer why should I reach about Android now when there is NO Android device in the consumers hand? J2ME is fine for me!
From the device manufacturer perspective why should they promote someone else platform if it competes with their own and more over no developer community?———-xxx——————-I love to comprehend from the community why i should create apps for Android “now”?
“By this. I mean handsets will become more like PC’s and wireless carriers will become more like landline DSL providers. This is a bold statement because both handset makers (like Nokia) and carriers (like Vodafone) don’t be this to come about.”
Ummm … what? Nokia would like nothing more than to forbid bending over backwards to the operators around the world and just change their devices desire people buy computers today. You must be unaware of their open race in NYC and how people who aren’t living in America are buying their mobile phones.
Just because the iPhone woke up the American wireless market doesn’t mean the rest of the world was asleep. Go to any phone shop in the EU and be shocked by how many models you can choose from versus a single kiosk that has a handful of models an operator subsides.
1)if a technology needs $ to attract developers then there is a problem what customer problem i can solve with Android when there is no customer!
2)regarding manufacturer:I agree in theory but in reality we know how hard it will be for an another new phone company!(big company or a startup)
Some random thoughts from India where the scene is a bit different. Market Scene. Music Industry. Gaming and Social Networking are commented on personal undergo.
Land of the unlocked - from IPhones to Nokia’s - the concept of being tied to a carrier does exist very partially with two operators of the be 7 opting for locked phones “without” SIMS. These guys are on CDMA while the remaining five are GSM and control 80% of the be market.
With 8M+ new users per month. India creates unique situations that one really cant predict what ordain work here. Lowest ARPU’s in the world at sub 8$. 25 states with 1600 Languages a country that is so vivid in religion culture food and climate - that it is literally like 25 Countries put together.
1. There are 200M+ mobile phones against 3M Broadband Connections. ( The gap is predicted to become 500M and 20M by 2010)
2. Atleast 200M people will use the Internet for the first time in their lives through a Mobile telecommunicate in India. So prolly we might do mobile transactions in a small check as many havent seen a Computer save an ECommerce Transaction
In such a dynamic merchandise there is not a single mobile application that has mass usage. This can be attributed to the numerous handsets under the sun - and yes they are all not Series 60 and Nokias.
Iphones bring home the bacon without a glitch out here but after using one for two months i have realized that its more of a cool phone than a useful telecommunicate. That might be due to various reasons like high sms usage high voice usage ( phone heats up big time )and the data rates being pretty high over here - 2.5$ per MB.
Social Networking also seems not to really take off simply because there arent that many broadband users ( that’s when compared to the mobile users :-)
Assume i click a photo with my camera phone - i ordain never find a PC besides me to transfer it. Even if i find a PC it wont have internet and if its my lucky day and has internet - it still wont be broadband. But yet 1 in 5 Indians have a mobile phone while 1 in 350 undergo a broadband connection. Buy 2010. 1 in 3 will have a mobile phone.
Thus User Generated Content will take off in India pretty much like MCommerce once the platforms to share Mobile Content over Social Networks go into conceive of where Internet is just a part of the scene. Internet can exist but is not really a necessity to share content.
Gaming pretty much happens a lot in India over mobile phones but we are the land of Pirates too so no revenue opportunity in the near call.
The Mobile Music Rights and DRM literally are very confusing terms out here in India and scene would pretty much be the same for another year.:-)
The Author is Co-founder and CEO of MobME - Mobile Media and Entertainment - rated as one of India’s 100 Innovative Startups and the youngest company amongst 100 Indian IT Innovators for 2007 alongside HP,TI,Rueters. :-)
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Related article:
http://venturebeat.com/2007/12/15/2008-predictions-from-a-vc-android-will-succeed/
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